CBN Friday Special丨“No.1 central document” in-depth: Why is soybean security important to China?

Hello! Welcome to this edition of CBN Friday Special. I’m Stephanie Li.

Soybeans, accounting for the highest proportion of China's food imports, were mentioned eight times in China's No.1 central document of 2023 issued on Monday, more than any other food crop mentioned.

The document, released by China's central authorities at the start of each year, is a key indicator of policy priorities for the year ahead. In this annual rural policy blueprint, the State Council, China’s cabinet, reiterated a recently stated goal to boost grain production capacity by 50 million tons, from current production of more than 650 million tons, state news agency Xinhua reported.

“The primary task of a strong agricultural country is to ensure national food security,” agriculture minister Tang Renjian said at a news conference on Tuesday on the policy blueprint. His comments referred to the central government’s stated plan to build a “strong agricultural country” to support China’s development.

This year’s statement also said the government will boost subsidies for corn and soybean producers, pilot test soybean full cost insurance and planting income insurance, and promote substitutes to soybean meal as animal feed.

According to data from the General Administration of Customs of China, China imported a total of 146.87 million tons of grains in 2022, the bulk of which consisted of soybeans at an impressive 91.08 million tons. In 2022, China spent a total of $82.65 billion on imported grain, of which $61.24 billion was spent on soybeans.

In 2022, the international grain market was turbulent as witnessed by the sharp fluctuation in grain prices. Under the circumstances, though China's rations are under no immediate threat, the strategic security of soybeans, which is heavily dependent on overseas markets, has become increasingly prominent.

China is facing severe external risks and challenges amid a complicated and ever-changing international situation. Domestic production and consumption will be tightly balanced for a long time, so China must always have a sense of crisis about its grain security, which has improved markedly.

Beijing has long placed an emphasis on national security, including in terms of food and seeds. The global price turbulence and looming food crisis stemming from the Ukraine conflict have served as further reminders to China that it should reduce its reliance on foreign markets for key crops and commodities.

China listed soybean expansion as "a major political task to be accomplished" in 2022. And last year’s soybean output and cropland area reached record highs, while Beijing hopes to raise domestic soybean output by 40% to 23 million tons by 2025.

Attaining larger soybean yields while reducing China's dependency on external sources has been high on the government's agenda as it seeks to ensure there is enough food for 1.4 billion people.

The domestic output of soybeans - a major oilseed and animal feed - reached 20.28 million tons in 2022, marking a year-on-year increase of 23.7%. It was the first time the country produced more than 20 million tons.

The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs (MOA) aims to expand growing areas for soybean and oil crops by at least 660,000 hectares this year, and raise the self-sufficiency rate for cooking oil production by 1 percentage point.

Soybean cropland amounted to 10.2 million hectares (25.2 million acres) in 2022, an increase of about 21% from 2021, the largest amount of land used for soybean production since 1958. Rapeseed output edged up 1.1% to 36.53 million tons last year.

After the founding of the People's Republic of China, the area planted with soybeans peaked at 12.73 million hectares in 1957. Cultivation of the crop started contracting in the 1990s after it was edged out by more lucrative cash crops such as corn.

China used to be the world's largest producer of soybeans until the War of Resistance Against Japanese Aggression (1931-45), but now buys up to 80% of its needs on the global market.

This increase in domestic output coincided with a decline in soybean imports last year, and the import total is expected to keep falling in the coming years. According to data released by China customs last month, soybean imports declined by 8.1%, year on year, during the first 11 months of 2022.

China's soybean self-sufficiency rate is estimated to have reached 18.5% in 2022, which would mark a year-on-year increase of 3 percentage points, according to the MOA. The increased supply of the crop, coupled with a national campaign to encourage frugality in the catering sector, has resulted in a 1.6 percentage point increase in the self-sufficiency rate of China's overall cooking oil production.

China’s Soybean Revitalization Scheme was introduced with the release of the 2019 No. 1 central document, amid a backdrop of the country’s heavy reliance on imports of the legume.

The sense of urgency to increase domestic soybean production ramped up in late 2021 after the domestic yield shrank by 16.4%, year on year, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.

The country's agricultural ministry told local governments in late 2021 that enlarging soybean and oil crop planting was "a major political task" to be completed in 2022. Last year, China launched initiatives to improve the capacity of soybean production, focusing on crop rotations. The project has got off to a "good start", said Pan Wenbo, director of the Planting Management Department under the MOA.

"But in general, there is still a large gap between China's soybean production and demand," said Pan, who added that China will continue to increase the plantation of soybean and other oilseed crops in 2023.

And soybean imports appear to have already hit their peak level and will gradually decline through 2030 as Beijing continues its effort to double down on food security, according to a new report, while most of those imports comprised genetically modified (GMO) soybeans from the United States, Brazil and Argentina, with Brazil being the largest supplier to China.

Brazil has been increasingly taking some of the market share of Chinese exports from the US since the US-China trade tension began in 2018, when the share of Brazilian soybean exports to China exceeded 75% while the US market share plunged to 19%, according a report by Rabobank, a Dutch multinational banking and financial services company.

China is the world's largest soybean importer, accounting for more than 60% of global trade. In 2022, China imported an estimated 94-95 million tons of soybeans, the report said.

China's annual soybean consumption in recent years has been around 110 million tons. More than 85% of that is used for crushing and consumption to meet the needs of animal feed and oil. Less than 15% is used for food consumption.

"Soymeal is the key feed protein source in China, accounting for 70% of volume as Chinese livestock farmers believed high-protein diets could ensure animal health and accelerate growth," the report said.

However, China introduced the concept of low-protein feed formula in 2018, in the face of uncertainties surrounding external supplies, and the agriculture ministry continued to issue further guidelines to reduce soybean meal use in the last couple of years.

The Rabobank report said China's soybean imports peaked in 2020, and that the inclusion rate of soybean meal in feed rations is projected to drop from 15.3% in 2021 to 13.5% in 2025, and then to 12% by 2030.

"A slowdown and eventual reduction in China's soybean imports will reshape global trade flows," the report said.

While China will remain the largest importer, additional growth will shift from China to other regions and mainly be driven by emerging economies in the Middle East, Southeast Asia, and South Asia.

Back in domestic focus, in order to help raise soybean output, the 2023 document called for the continued promotion of intercropping soybeans with corn and developing saline land for soybeans.

China will increase its efforts to boost output of soybeans and edible oils, “vigorously” promote rapeseed production on fallow land during winter months, as well as lesser known oilseed crops such as camellia, according to the document, while also supporting the development of rotational planting of grain and soybean in the northeast and northern Huang-Huai-Hai Plain.

Beijing also plans to speed up the pace of commercialization of biotech corn and soybeans, according to the document, which should eventually help raise yields. Though no specific time frame was provided for the launch of genetically modified corn and soybeans, many market observers expect a launch this year.

China’s reliance on overseas producers has also directly exposed its soybean farmers to fierce pricing competition from imported GMO soybeans. Farmers are not only faced with the pressure of rising cultivation costs, but also have to compete with low-cost, high-yield imports to find a market for locally produced soybeans.

Foreign soybeans, especially those sourced from the US, are a high-yielding GMO variety, combined with low land costs, and large-scale industrial farming. The price of American soybeans flooding the market through Hong Kong is far lower than the market price of soybeans locally produced in Heilongjiang.

As farmers are most concerned about the stability of costs and income, this year’s No.1 document pledged to continue to raise subsidy level for soybean producers and implement the pilot scheme of two types of agricultural insurance.

2月13日《中共中央 国务院关于做好2023年全面推进乡村振兴重点工作的意见》发布，这是21世纪以来第20个指导“三农”工作的中央一号文件。粮食安全是“国之大者”，也是中央一号文件的关注重点。

全文共九个部分，其中提到，抓紧抓好粮食和重要农产品稳产保供，全力抓好粮食生产。确保全国粮食产量保持在1.3万亿斤以上，各省（自治区、直辖市）都要稳住面积、主攻单产、力争多增产。

从中央一号文件来看，今年我国粮食生产目标任务重点是“两稳两扩两提”，即稳面积、稳产量，扩大豆、扩油料，提单产、提自给率。中央农村工作领导小组办公室主任、农业农村部部长唐仁健解读文件时表示，保障粮食和重要农产品稳定安全供给，是建设农业强国的头等大事。“纵观世界强国发展史，一个国家要真正强大，必须有强大农业作支撑，在粮食和重要农产品供给、关键核心技术和产业链供应链等方面不受制于人。建设农业强国既是现代化强国的应有之义，也是现代化强国的重要支撑。”

唐仁健指出，我国粮食产量连续8年稳定在1.3万亿斤以上，特别是去年克服疫情灾情、国际粮价剧烈波动和农资价格高企等多重不利因素，实现丰收增产，为稳经济大盘提供了有力支撑。当前和今后一个时期，稳产保供形势复杂严峻，压力也越来越大。

在粮食安全体系中，牢牢端稳“油瓶子”是重要组成部分。今年在2023年的一号文件里，大豆成为高频关键词，一共被提及8次之多。自2004年开始，至今已有13份中央一号文件关注大豆生产，特别是自2019年中央一号文件提出实施大豆振兴计划以来，文件已经连续第四年聚焦大豆的种植推广。

具体来看，今年的中央一号文件提出，加力扩种大豆油料。深入推进大豆和油料产能提升工程。扎实推进大豆玉米带状复合种植，支持东北、黄淮海地区开展粮豆轮作，稳步开发利用盐碱地种植大豆。完善玉米大豆生产者补贴，实施好大豆完全成本保险和种植收入保险试点。深入实施种业振兴行动。加快培育高产高油大豆、短生育期油菜、耐盐碱作物等新品种。加快玉米大豆生物育种产业化步伐，有序扩大试点范围，规范种植管理。统筹油菜综合性扶持措施，推行稻油轮作，大力开发利用冬闲田种植油菜。支持木本油料发展，实施加快油茶产业发展三年行动，落实油茶扩种和低产低效林改造任务。深入实施饲用豆粕减量替代行动。

在我国，由于大豆长期产不足需，对外依存度高，进口已经成为常态。提出“扩种大豆油料”的背后，正是我国油脂油料自给率偏低的现状。我国油料作物增长缓慢，远低于谷物和粮食作物。2000年至2021年我国主要油料作物（大豆，花生，葵花籽，油菜籽）收获面积从2289万公顷下降至2084万公顷。

不仅如此，国产大豆的出油率低于国外的转基因大豆，此外主产区黑龙江的大豆销往沿海的运输成本偏高，国产大豆在压榨方面的竞争力要低于进口大豆，国产大豆主要用于高蛋白食品豆。

从我国的进口粮食品种结构来看，以大豆为主，占到了总进口量的65%左右，国内大豆消费的进口依存度更是超过了85%。在进口来源中，巴西、美国和阿根廷是我国进口大豆的三大主要进口来源国，其中，从巴西和美国两国进口的大豆比重常年保持在85%以上，进口集中度高，在复杂多变的国际环境中风险上升。

目前我国是世界上最大的大豆进口国。近些年进口量常年保持在8500万吨左右。海关总署公布数据显示，中国2022年1至12月大豆进口9109万吨，同比减少544万吨，减幅5.6%。相比国内2022年2029万吨的大豆产量，进口大豆数量遥遥领先。

从国内主粮作物来看，我国稻谷长期保持完全自给，而小麦的自给率也达到了95%以上，玉米虽然进口量也比较大，但自给率基本能稳定在95%以上甚至更高，而大豆的自给率仅在15%左右，在所有的进口大豆中，80%又被压榨为豆粕后用做养猪、养鸡等的蛋白质饲料。

从国内大豆消费来看，随着居民消费水平提高，对肉蛋奶的需求不断增长，近些年我国的大豆消费均保持在1.1亿吨以上。其中，食用消费量大约在1500万吨，压榨消费大约在9500万吨。在中国的植物油消费中，豆油占50%，其次分别是棕榈油、菜油、花生油、棉油、葵花子油、玉米胚芽油等。经过产业格局的变迁，多年来中国大豆市场已形成食用和饲料两个相对独立的市场，国产非转基因大豆主要用作食品、加工豆制品和大豆蛋白，进口转基因大豆主要用于满足国内植物油和蛋白粕需求，20%加工成油脂，80%加工成豆粕。由于我国属于蛋白质资源比较稀缺的国家，大豆不仅是油料作物重要的品种，豆粕也是鸡、猪、奶牛、肉牛等动物饲养的主要蛋白质来源。适当降低进口依赖度，提升国内自给率，有利于保证油料供应。

从豆粕消费的实际情况来看，根据Mysteel统计的数据，2022年我国豆粕总消费量7094万吨，较2021年下降230万吨，2021年较2020年下降85万吨。我国饲料中豆粕消费总量连续两年下降，这其中很大一部分原因归功于饲用豆粕减量替代行动的实施。

当然，这并不是终点，根据农业农村部测算数据，如果推行得力，最终可减少2300万吨的豆粕使用量，折合大豆量3000万吨。因此，深入实施饲用豆粕减量替代行动，将会对我国的粮食安全带来重大影响。

2019年，农业农村部重启大豆振兴计划，确定了“到2020年，全国大豆种植面积力争达到1.4亿亩”的目标。随后，2020年、2021年，农业农村部继续实施大豆振兴计划，并再次确认了这一目标。大豆播种面积2019年1.40亿亩、2020年1.48亿亩，同比增幅分别为10.9％、5.9%。

根据国家统计局1月18日数据，大豆油料扩种成效明显。大豆面积1.54亿亩，比上年增加2743万亩，是1958年以来最高的年份。产量2028万吨，增加389万吨。油菜面积达到1.09亿亩，增加近400万亩，油料作物总产量3653万吨，比上年增长1.1%。因供给增加和消费节约，食用植物油自给率提高1.6个百分点。

大豆属于土地密集型农产品，产量相对较低，特别是国内种植的非转基因大豆，产量更低。和美国、巴西等国家的转基因大豆相比，其平均单产大约3190公斤/公顷，而2022年，国内大豆单产仅为1980公斤/公顷。因此，从单产上来讲， 国产大豆仍有较大的提升空间。据估算如果国产大豆单产提高20%，按照2022年1.54亿亩计算，产量可在2022年创纪录的2029万吨的基础上，再增加500万吨。

提高单产的出路之一是转基因作物，商业化种植必须具备两大条件，获得基因安全证书和品种审定。国际和国内对转基因作物的推广种植存在较大争议，到2022年6月我国出台了《国家级转基因大豆品种审定标准（试行）》、《国家级转基因玉米品种审定标准（试行）》，为转基因大豆品种从研发到商业化种植扫除了障碍。

当然，这并不意味着豆农就可以马上种植转基因大豆，在一号文件中也明确指出，要有序扩大试点范围，规范种植管理。说明转基因大豆的商业化种植是一个逐步扩大的过程，同时，在种植过程中将会受到严格监管。

2022年，是我国实施大豆和油料提升工程的第一年并取得了不错的开端，播种面积较上年度增加了1843公顷，产量增加了389万吨达到了创纪录的2029万吨。成绩的取得主要得益于政策的引导，特别是种植者补贴向大豆倾斜以及玉米带状复合种植等一系列政策“组合拳”的推出。

但不可否认，在扩大豆实施工程的第一年，也遇到了不少问题。例如，尽管国产大豆获得了丰产，但丰产并不“丰收”，影响豆农种植大豆的积极性。究其原因，是因为国产大豆是非转基因大豆，无论是蛋白含量和价格上，大多数时候和进口大豆均没有竞争优势，这也导致国产大豆除了食用，很难进入压榨领域，而进口大豆80%用于压榨领域。

目前存在的最大问题是在满足食用需求之后，扩种后多余的产量如何进入压榨领域，同时在实现丰产的同时让豆农获得“丰收”。加快大豆生物育种产业步伐可以解决多余产量进入压榨领域的问题。而让豆农丰产又“丰收”，就得靠生产者补贴和大豆完全成本保险和种植收入保险的保驾护航。同时也应看到，农民最关心的种植成本及收入稳定，在一号文件中，明确提出要继续完善大豆生产者补贴并实施好两种保险的试点运行。今年或将继续提升大豆生产者补贴水平，政策直指核心，消除了农民种植大豆的后顾之忧。

Executive Editor: Sonia YU

Editor: LI Yanxia

Host: Stephanie LI

Writer: Stephanie LI

Sound Editor: Stephanie LI

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