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CMC Markets 专栏- 美联储表示对9月份加息的信心不足

2015-08-20 来源: CMC Markets 评论0条


 CMC Markets 专栏 -- CMC commentary and dont forget the disclaimer.


 
今早公布的美联储7月28日至29日会议内容纪要并没有出乎绝大部分市场投资者所料,美联储官员表示“对于肯定的政策出台时机还不成熟,然而目前状况已经向这个目标迈进”。这里向目标迈进的“状况”应该是暗示美国就业状况持续改善,“时机不成熟”暗指通货膨胀率的持续低迷。基本所有的会议成员都同时表示“他们需要看到更多经济增长的事实,就业状况的足够稳固,才会对通货膨胀率能够在适当的时期内恢复其长期的目标水平有合理的信心”。投资者对于此次会议内容的理解为美国降低了9月份加息的可能性。根据美国国债期货市场价格显示,市场对于9月份加息的可能性降低至38%,低于早前的50%。
 
美国加息行动仍旧围绕着两项重要的经济指标:劳动力市场与通货膨胀率。在劳动力市场方面,美国就业市场持续稳步改善,失业率由2009年11月份10.2%稳步下降至目前的5.3%;7月份实现非农业就业人数21.5万人的增长,高于2015年平均增长人数21.1万人。然而在通货膨胀率方面,由于能源尤其为原油价格的下滑与美元的走强,仍然不能摆脱低迷状况,7月份美国消费者价格指数仅增长0.1%,差于预期值0.2%,差于6月份增长率的0.3%,离2%的通货膨胀目标还有较远的距离。连锁反应下,美国居民工资水平还不足以能够实现稳步上涨。6月份美国工资水平同比上涨4.14%,运行于较低水平。另外,中国经济的放缓与近日人民币的贬值降低了其对国际大宗商品的需求,而强势的美元使美国对进口消费品价格水平下降,是影响通货膨胀率的又一重要原因。
 
会议内容公布以后,美元大幅回落,非美货币全线上扬。表现突出的为欧元与日元,欧元/美元上涨0.87%,收盘于1.1119;美元/日元下跌0.48%,收盘于123.79。同时,黄金大幅冲高18美元,收盘于1134.01。

美国失业率一览表

CMC Markets 专栏- 美联储表示对9月份加息的信心不足 - 1

资料来源:forexfactory

CMC Markets 专栏- 美联储表示对9月份加息的信心不足 - 2

资料来源:tradingeconomics.com/U.S. Bureau of Eonomic Ayalysis

作者:Tina Teng- CMC Markets 销售与客户培训主管
 
Investing in CFDs carries significant risks and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. You do not own, or have any interest in, the underlying assets. We recommend that you seek independent advice and ensure you fully understand the risks involved before trading. The information in this Market Commentary has been prepared by CMC Markets using information from external sources, believed to be accurate and reliable at the time it was sourced. It is general information only. Neither CMC Markets, its subsidiaries, nor any director, employee or agent of CMC Markets gives any guarantee, representation or warranty as to the reliability, accuracy or completeness of the information contained in the Market Commentary, nor accepts any responsibility or liability arising in any way (including by reason of negligence) for errors in, or omissions from, the information in the Market Commentary to the fullest extent permitted by law. In preparing this Market Commentary, CMC Markets did not take into account your objectives, financial situation and needs. Consequently, you should consider the information in light of your objectives, financial situation and needs. It's important for you to consider the relevant Product Disclosure Statement ('PDS') and any other relevant CMC Markets Documents before you decide whether or not to acquire any of the financial products. Our Financial Services Guide contains details of our fees and charges. All of these documents are available at cmcmarkets.com.au or you can call us on 1300 303 888.

关键词: 美联储加息
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