CMC Markets专栏: 市场注意力转回美联储

俄罗斯外交部长拉夫罗夫表示，土耳其击落俄军机是“有计划的挑衅”，认为恐怖份子在土耳其境内策划对其他国家的袭击。但是俄方不将与土耳其开战，他说道“我们对土耳其人民的态度没有改变，只是对土耳其领导层有疑问”。但据新华社消息，俄罗斯同时以其他方式向土耳其施加压力，俄方官员称有可能对俄罗斯修建至土耳其的天然气管道在做评估。另外，由俄罗斯国家原子能公司承建的土耳其核电站“阿库尤”也可能会受到影响。
 
全球股市在俄方表示不予发站后出现似乎松出一口气，继续将注意力转回金融市场的主流影响力美联储与欧洲央行，鉴于美联储12月16日议息会议上实行自2006年以来第一次加息的预期，经过几日的回调，美元强势再次显现；而随着欧洲央行12月3日会议的临近，由于投资者对其再度扩大宽松的预期强烈，欧股市场出现了大幅的逢低反转的行情，欧洲斯托克指数50上涨1.54%，德指30上涨2.15%，英国富时指数上涨0.96%。
 
债券市场方面，美国10年期国债收益率并无较大表变动，在周三触及2.2%后，目前仍然在稳定在2.23%。美国2年期国债收益率利差达到 自2月份以来最窄。10年期国债债券市场将在美国感恩节，澳纽时间周五关市。

美国2年期国债与10年期国债收益率利差

资料来源：布伦伯格
 
德国2年期国债收益率下滑至历史低位，同时西班牙与比利时债券市场也出现相似行情。
 
货币市场方面，欧元再度下行，昨日最高触及1.0689，随后回落，目前运行于1.0619附近。美元兑日元汇率显现近日的地位反弹，昨日最低触及122.25，后反弹近50点，目前运行于122.72附近。澳币、纽币仍然持续其短期内较强的涨势，主要是由于两国央行最近对于继续降息的预期并不明确，加之由于大宗商品近日的反弹给出澳洲经济形势乐观信号，澳币反弹显强势。
 
澳纽方面的重要提醒是：近日重点关注新西兰时间上午10点45分，将有新西兰10月份贸易平衡账公布，预期赤字100亿美元。下午1点30分澳洲的 第三季度私营部门投资资本开支，预期-2.8%。这两项数据有可能会是澳币、纽币近日的走势的转点信号。
 
大宗商品方面，纽约商品交易所美国德克萨斯原油期货价格仍然呈继续反弹态势，昨日先出现回调后再度攀升，一日涨幅0.51%，目前运行于43.08美元。黄金昨日先涨后跌，最高触及1080.05美元附近，后迅速回落10美元之1070附近。
 
整体上看，市场仍然对于美联储加息预期与欧洲央行扩大宽行动处于警觉状态。

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Tina Teng在2015年6月份加入CMC Markets 担任销售与客户培训主管职务，负责亚太地区客户的培训和经济评论的撰写工作。她具有其独树一帜的市场视角和技术分析方法，认为金融市场是集历史，经济，政治，心理学与哲学于一身的学问。技术分析是市场基本面的可视性技术语言；而对于技术性语言的解读与对各国家经济、政治与历史背景分析的结合，与对投资心理状态的理解才会是对金融市场最全面的感知。自2012至2015年，Tina Teng曾任职金融经纪公司客户服务部经理为客户提供外汇差价合约方面的培训工作。此前，自2005年至2009年，她曾经在中国中央电视台广告经济中心任职，负责撰写中国广告经济方面的评论文章，造就了她对于中国经济现状和企业现状有深入的理解和敏锐的洞察力。