CMC Markets专栏:美联储加息预期极其强烈

明日早北京时间凌晨3点钟（澳大利亚时间早5点钟，新西兰时间早8点钟），美国联合公开市场委员会将对是否实行自2006年以来第一次增加联邦基金利率作出决议。据各方面统计来看，本次加息基本是势在必然，美元有可能再次走强。

技术形态上看，各非美货币经过进行大幅反弹后，均有预准再次下跌的迹象。我们可以从各主要的货币的盘面上来作探讨。

欧元/美元的潜在技术回撤位置可能在1.07整数位置附近；美元/日元的潜在上行目标可能在122.40附近；纽币/美元与澳币美元的潜在回调位置可能分别在0.6580与0.7020左右。

欧元在欧洲央行的扩大宽松让人失望后近两周有大幅反弹，但在1.1整数位置受阻始终无法顺利突破，逐步出现多头回吐的迹象。加之欧洲宽松与美国收紧的政策性反差，欧元/美元可能再次下行，潜在目标首看1.07附近;

美元/日元的日线图中可以看出近两日有明显短期的潜在小底部形态出现，前日的止跌锤后昨日收柱体较长的阳柱，上方的进一步潜在目标将可能在122.45附近；

以前的文章中写到过，澳币/美元在突破长期的下行通道后，仍然在横盘整理的区间0.7020-0.7380内运行，上周在横盘定部回调，本周有可能下探通道下轨0.7020附近的位置;

纽币由于今晨时间的乳品拍卖价格涨幅不尽人意，已经出现顶部回调的迹象。如果日线图中近似上行通道顶部受阻下行，下方的潜在第一目标可能在0.6680，如果突破下跌则又可能再次挑战0.6580- 0.6600的区间。

但如果明日美联储决定加息，则美元有可能不会无止境的继续走强下去，各非美货币在短期回调后仍然有再次触底反弹的机会。当今国际经济形势下，强势加息有可能导致全球债务风险而再次引发危机，美联储可能会循序渐进的实行收紧，市场各方面可能会经历短暂震荡后回到正常轨道上。

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Investing in CFDs carries significant risks and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. You do not own, or have any interest in, the underlying assets. We recommend that you seek independent advice and ensure you fully understand the risks involved before trading. The information in this Market Commentary has been prepared by CMC Markets using information from external sources, believed to be accurate and reliable at the time it was sourced. It is general information only. Neither CMC Markets, its subsidiaries, nor any director, employee or agent of CMC Markets gives any guarantee, representation or warranty as to the reliability, accuracy or completeness of the information contained in the Market Commentary, nor accepts any responsibility or liability arising in any way (including by reason of negligence) for errors in, or omissions from, the information in the Market Commentary to the fullest extent permitted by law. In preparing this Market Commentary, CMC Markets did not take into account your objectives, financial situation and needs. Consequently, you should consider the information in light of your objectives, financial situation and needs. It's important for you to consider the relevant Product Disclosure Statement ('PDS') and any other relevant CMC Markets Documents before you decide whether or not to acquire any of the financial products. Our Financial Services Guide contains details of our fees and charges. All of these documents are available at cmcmarkets.co.nz or you can call us on 0800 26 26 27.

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Tina Teng在2015年6月份加入CMC Markets 担任销售与客户培训主管职务，负责亚太地区客户的培训和经济评论的撰写工作。她具有其独树一帜的市场视角和技术分析方法，认为金融市场是集历史，经济，政治，心理学与哲学于一身的学问。技术分析是市场基本面的可视性技术语言；而对于技术性语言的解读与对各国家经济、政治与历史背景分析的结合，与对投资心理状态的理解才会是对金融市场最全面的感知。自2012至2015年，Tina Teng曾任职金融经纪公司客户服务部经理为客户提供外汇差价合约方面的培训工作。此前，自2005年至2009年，她曾经在中国中央电视台广告经济中心任职，负责撰写中国广告经济方面的评论文章，造就了她对于中国经济现状和企业现状有深入的理解和敏锐的洞察力。