CMC Markets专栏: 乳制品价格下跌,纽币承压

Author
CMC Markets, Tina Teng

Article
昨日全球乳制品拍卖价格较前置下降3.1%，乳制品平均价格降至2735美元/公吨，其中全脂奶粉价格为2694美元/公吨，较前置下跌4.6%。乳制品价格终结四连胜，而且远低于新西兰恒天然乳业的预期。纽币对美元应声下跌50余点，一日整体下滑0.54%，由最高0.6848跌至最低0.6735，后反弹至0.6755附近。

本次拍卖价格远低于新西兰恒天然乳业预期，尤其是全脂奶粉价格是决定新西兰原奶收购价格的主要因素。根据恒天然乳业首席财务官（CFO）Lukas预期本次全脂奶粉价格将在3000美元-3200美元/公吨，以能够支持本产奶季原奶收购价格可达4.6纽币/公斤。

全球乳制品拍卖价格百分比变化

 
全球乳制品10年拍卖价格指数

数据来源：Globaldairytrade

恒天然乳业预测本季节其产量会下降5%，有些人预测其产量会下降10%。对于乳制品产量的影响因素也有气候原因。随之新西兰开始逐步进入干旱季节，乳品产量可能由此受到影响进而使得价格受到上行压力。

另外，新西兰将在今日公布9月份移民人数，将是新西兰经济导向的另一个重要指标。尤其是对新西兰房价有直接的影响作用。

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Tina Teng在2015年6月份加入CMC Markets 担任销售与客户培训主管职务，负责亚太地区客户的培训和经济评论的撰写工作。她具有其独树一帜的市场视角和技术分析方法，认为金融市场是集历史，经济，政治，心理学与哲学于一身的学问。技术分析是市场基本面的可视性技术语言；而对于技术性语言的解读与对各国家经济、政治与历史背景分析的结合，与对投资心理状态的理解才会是对金融市场最全面的感知。自2012至2015年，Tina Teng曾任职金融经纪公司客户服务部经理为客户提供外汇差价合约方面的培训工作。此前，自2005年至2009年，她曾经在中国中央电视台广告经济中心任职，负责撰写中国广告经济方面的评论文章，造就了她对于中国经济现状和企业现状有深入的理解和敏锐的洞察力。