CMC Markets专栏: 澳币看跌，但跌势已淡

Author
CMC Markets, Tina Teng

Article
美国10月份非农就业数据意外的强劲，基本使得美国12月份加息预期更加明朗，美元终破阻力再次走强，其他各大货币纷纷再次跳水。澳币对美元汇率再次呈压下行，下探重要支持位置0.70整数位附近。今日刚刚公布的中国10月份居民消费物价指数继9月份后再度萎缩，增长仅为1.3%，差于预期1.5%。在此敏感时期，给亚太地区经济形势再添暗色。同时，澳洲今日也公布了其10月份NAB商业信心指数录得值为2，较上月有所减弱，但仍然为增长势态。

技术形态的盘面上来看，澳币没有因为表现不佳的数据再次冲低，反而显现出较强的支持形态。而且长期图形上看，虽然跌势仍然明显，但势头有逐步减淡的迹象。目前来看，澳币的短期上方阻力位置在0.7110附近，下方潜在支持仍看0.70整数位。而长期澳币对美元的汇率有可能会继续下行稳定在0.66-0.67的区间，然后逐步筑底。

日线图

日线图在潜在的下行通道底部，也是100天均线与200天均线重合的地方有较强的支持，在此澳币/美元有可能受支撑上行，上探潜在阻力位置0.7100附近。有可能在此位置再次受阻下行。

月线图

月线图显示长期的下降楔形整理，并且此楔形的形态较为标准，可以看出澳币的跌势已经逐步减弱，如果使用黄金分割延长线来分析其潜在下方支持位置，则可以看出在50.0%与61.8%回荡县之间有可能是澳币潜在的筑底区间。但这个时间可能是中长期的阶段，要等到12月份美国加息决议之后再作定夺。

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Investing in CFDs carries significant risks and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. You do not own, or have any interest in, the underlying assets. We recommend that you seek independent advice and ensure you fully understand the risks involved before trading. The information in this Market Commentary has been prepared by CMC Markets using information from external sources, believed to be accurate and reliable at the time it was sourced. It is general information only. Neither CMC Markets, its subsidiaries, nor any director, employee or agent of CMC Markets gives any guarantee, representation or warranty as to the reliability, accuracy or completeness of the information contained in the Market Commentary, nor accepts any responsibility or liability arising in any way (including by reason of negligence) for errors in, or omissions from, the information in the Market Commentary to the fullest extent permitted by law. In preparing this Market Commentary, CMC Markets did not take into account your objectives, financial situation and needs. Consequently, you should consider the information in light of your objectives, financial situation and needs. It's important for you to consider the relevant Product Disclosure Statement ('PDS') and any other relevant CMC Markets Documents before you decide whether or not to acquire any of the financial products. Our Financial Services Guide contains details of our fees and charges. All of these documents are available at cmcmarkets.com.au or you can call us on 1300 303 888.

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Investing in CFDs carries significant risks and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. You do not own, or have any interest in, the underlying assets. We recommend that you seek independent advice and ensure you fully understand the risks involved before trading. The information in this Market Commentary has been prepared by CMC Markets using information from external sources, believed to be accurate and reliable at the time it was sourced. It is general information only. Neither CMC Markets, its subsidiaries, nor any director, employee or agent of CMC Markets gives any guarantee, representation or warranty as to the reliability, accuracy or completeness of the information contained in the Market Commentary, nor accepts any responsibility or liability arising in any way (including by reason of negligence) for errors in, or omissions from, the information in the Market Commentary to the fullest extent permitted by law. In preparing this Market Commentary, CMC Markets did not take into account your objectives, financial situation and needs. Consequently, you should consider the information in light of your objectives, financial situation and needs. It's important for you to consider the relevant Product Disclosure Statement ('PDS') and any other relevant CMC Markets Documents before you decide whether or not to acquire any of the financial products. Our Financial Services Guide contains details of our fees and charges. All of these documents are available at cmcmarkets.co.nz or you can call us on 0800 26 26 27.

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Tina Teng在2015年6月份加入CMC Markets 担任销售与客户培训主管职务，负责亚太地区客户的培训和经济评论的撰写工作。她具有其独树一帜的市场视角和技术分析方法，认为金融市场是集历史，经济，政治，心理学与哲学于一身的学问。技术分析是市场基本面的可视性技术语言；而对于技术性语言的解读与对各国家经济、政治与历史背景分析的结合，与对投资心理状态的理解才会是对金融市场最全面的感知。自2012至2015年，Tina Teng曾任职金融经纪公司客户服务部经理为客户提供外汇差价合约方面的培训工作。此前，自2005年至2009年，她曾经在中国中央电视台广告经济中心任职，负责撰写中国广告经济方面的评论文章，造就了她对于中国经济现状和企业现状有深入的理解和敏锐的洞察力。