CMC Markets专栏:日经济萎缩 安倍定论失败

根据日本政府部门的统计，日本第三季度GDP环比下跌0.8%，同比第二季度下跌0.2%。这也许证实了许多经济学家的预测，日本经济进入了自总理安倍2012年12月任职后的第二次衰退。似乎安倍定律并为使得日本真正走出经济衰退的阴霾。

由于中国经济增长放缓与全球经济现状的担忧，日本商业投资缩减，企业库存量呈现萎缩，使得日本国内企业缩减开支并放缓生产。此次数据很可能导致日本总理安倍与央行行长Haruhiko Kuroda加大财政与货币的宽松力度。东京伊藤忠商事株式会社的一位经济学家称：“（第三季度经济）报告显示人本经济将继续其不良表现”，“对于资产投资支出的削弱成为最大的担忧。虽然（日本公司）对于其远景计划很有信心，但对于国内经济的弹性与国际经济的形势并不乐观”。

日本第三次经济报告显示，库存量较上季度下降0.5个百分点；商业投资较上季度缩减1.2个百分点；个人消费上涨0.3个百分点。另外，根据近期日本的一系列报告显示，日本居民消费滑落，机动车生产萎缩，零售数据与进口下滑，出口呈现停滞。

本周四将迎来日本央行的再一次货币政策内容的陈述与新闻发布会，根据日本经济现状，本次会议很可能使得日本央行再次加大其宽松力度。安倍已向其经济部长Akira Amari传达了为实现5年内日本GDP增长20%的目标，本月份需实行计划性措施的指示。Akira同时表示GDP有望本季度有所增长。

昨日日元兑美元再次下滑，现汇率行于123.20附近。

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Investing in CFDs carries significant risks and is not suitable for all investors. Losses can exceed your deposits. You do not own, or have any interest in, the underlying assets. We recommend that you seek independent advice and ensure you fully understand the risks involved before trading. The information in this Market Commentary has been prepared by CMC Markets using information from external sources, believed to be accurate and reliable at the time it was sourced. It is general information only. Neither CMC Markets, its subsidiaries, nor any director, employee or agent of CMC Markets gives any guarantee, representation or warranty as to the reliability, accuracy or completeness of the information contained in the Market Commentary, nor accepts any responsibility or liability arising in any way (including by reason of negligence) for errors in, or omissions from, the information in the Market Commentary to the fullest extent permitted by law. In preparing this Market Commentary, CMC Markets did not take into account your objectives, financial situation and needs. Consequently, you should consider the information in light of your objectives, financial situation and needs. It's important for you to consider the relevant Product Disclosure Statement ('PDS') and any other relevant CMC Markets Documents before you decide whether or not to acquire any of the financial products. Our Financial Services Guide contains details of our fees and charges. All of these documents are available at cmcmarkets.com.au or you can call us on 1300 303 888.

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Tina Teng在2015年6月份加入CMC Markets 担任销售与客户培训主管职务，负责亚太地区客户的培训和经济评论的撰写工作。她具有其独树一帜的市场视角和技术分析方法，认为金融市场是集历史，经济，政治，心理学与哲学于一身的学问。技术分析是市场基本面的可视性技术语言；而对于技术性语言的解读与对各国家经济、政治与历史背景分析的结合，与对投资心理状态的理解才会是对金融市场最全面的感知。自2012至2015年，Tina Teng曾任职金融经纪公司客户服务部经理为客户提供外汇差价合约方面的培训工作。此前，自2005年至2009年，她曾经在中国中央电视台广告经济中心任职，负责撰写中国广告经济方面的评论文章，造就了她对于中国经济现状和企业现状有深入的理解和敏锐的洞察力。