CMC Markets专栏:乳制品价格增幅让人失望

今日凌晨的全球乳制品拍卖中，乳制品均价为2458美元/公吨，较前次仅上涨1.9%，远差于市场预期的5%-10%。失望的数据使得纽币在近期的高位迅速回落，纽币对 美元由数据公布之前的0.68附近一度下滑近60余点至0.6742后回调，截止新西兰时间8点30分，其汇率运行于0.6758附近。

在本次拍卖价格中，全脂奶粉的价格增长1.8%至2304美元/公吨， 仍然距离理想价位3000美元/公吨有很大的距离。其价格由今年2月份最高均价3272美元/公吨，跌至8月份最低1590美元/公吨，有10月份出现反弹至2824美元/公吨，后又持续走低。3000美元是新西兰恒天然乳业固体奶在本年底至明年初预期收购价格4.6纽币/千克的价格支撑，而DairyNZ的最新调查绝大多数奶农的理想价格是5.4纽币/千克，这使得新西兰奶农的收益更让人担忧。

本次全球乳制品拍卖情况

全球乳制品10年价格指数走势

数据来源：Globledairytrade

驻芝加哥的乳品专家Jon Spainhour表示，在恒天然乳业逐步减产的情况下，本次的乳品拍卖结果对市场也许是一个熊市的信号。由于价格并没有因为减产而有明显的改善。他说道：“在过去，这（减产）将 引起市场更大的反应”。价格难以回升，仍旧是由于欧洲乳品生产量增加。他相信欧洲正逐步抢占美国与新西兰的买方市场，使得市场更加饱和。

上周，恒天然乳业将未来12个月的全脂奶粉产量缩减了3.763公吨，削减幅度达9.7%。这也使得年度全球乳制品产量降至35.2万公吨，是5年来低位。本次如制品价格的上涨幅度让人失望，市场前景不为乐观。纽币在近期有持续走高迹象，但昨日由于乳制品价格不及预期出现高位回落。同时，明天将有市场瞩目已久的美国联邦公开市场委员会的议息会议，美国加息可能短期内进一步推高美元，加之新西兰央行上周的下调利率，也许纽币将迎来又一波跌势。

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Tina Teng在2015年6月份加入CMC Markets 担任销售与客户培训主管职务，负责亚太地区客户的培训和经济评论的撰写工作。她具有其独树一帜的市场视角和技术分析方法，认为金融市场是集历史，经济，政治，心理学与哲学于一身的学问。技术分析是市场基本面的可视性技术语言；而对于技术性语言的解读与对各国家经济、政治与历史背景分析的结合，与对投资心理状态的理解才会是对金融市场最全面的感知。自2012至2015年，Tina Teng曾任职金融经纪公司客户服务部经理为客户提供外汇差价合约方面的培训工作。此前，自2005年至2009年，她曾经在中国中央电视台广告经济中心任职，负责撰写中国广告经济方面的评论文章，造就了她对于中国经济现状和企业现状有深入的理解和敏锐的洞察力。